By DAVE CARLSON
AAA Idaho
BOISE—The state of the economy is far from healthy, but AAA said last week that it expects 34.4 million Americans, up 9.9 percent from a year ago, will hit the roads, skyways and byways during summer's last hurrah, the Labor Day weekend.
Last year, just 31.3 million Americans traveled during the same period, as the country felt the full brunt of the Great Recession, AAA said.
This year's numbers are more promising, according to IHS Global Insight, the Boston-based company that makes the predictions for AAA. Compared to a year ago, Americans, on average, are in an improved economic position this year, and are therefore more likely to travel.
"These predictions point to improved numbers for all modes of travel," said AAA Idaho spokesman Dave Carlson. "Hotel, car and vacation packages are up over 10 percent compared to last year."
The increase in travel for Labor Day appears to be the result of modest economic improvement over the past year. While job growth has been disappointing, gross domestic product, household net worth and consumer confidence have increased, while consumer debt has decreased.
AAA said that U.S. travel has been gaining traction since the fourth quarter of 2009. Tourism spending is also up 3.9 percent, annualized from the fourth quarter of 2009.
Though Idaho's $2.99 average price for regular grade gasoline is 29 cents higher than the national average price of $2.70, AAA expects an 11 percent increase in the number of regional auto travelers this year compared to last. That's nearly identical to the average U.S. travel increase AAA expects. A year ago, Idahoans were paying $2.70 a gallon for gasoline, compared to a U.S. average of $2.63.
"Idaho's average price is sixth highest in the country right now, an ongoing storyline that is yet to be explained," Carlson said. "Aside from regional market factors that frequently account for differences in prices, we're aware of no particular explanation why Idaho's prices have been at least 16 cents a gallon more than the average national price for the past five months."
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Oil prices are down about $10 in the past two and one half weeks, on weak demand and high crude inventories. Oil and gasoline futures prices are generally good indicators of where pump prices will go. The national average price has dropped 8 cents since August 9. Idaho's prices have gone up three cents in that same time.
Holiday Travel by the Numbers
Altogether, AAA projects 34.4 million travelers will take a trip at least 50 miles away from his, compared to 31.3 million a year ago. The holiday period is defined as Thursday, September 2 to Monday, September 6.
Trips by automobile are expected to account for 91 percent of all travelers, or 31.4 million people, AAA said. This is an increase of 10.3 percent from last Labor Day when 28.5 million travelers went by motor vehicle.
Air travel is expected to account for five percent of overall travel. That should account for 1.62 million holiday flyers, a 4.6 percent increase from a year ago. This is viewed as fairly strong revival given that the number of Labor Day air travelers plunged over 33 percent in 2008, followed by a further 15 percent decline in 2009.
Another 4 percent will use trains, watercraft or other travel mode during the holiday period.
Based on a survey of traveler intentions, the average distance traveled by Americans this Labor Day holiday weekend is expected to be 635 miles, slightly less than one year ago (645 miles). Median spending is expected to be $697 this Labor Day, nearly $50 more than last year.
Dining (63 percent); shopping (47 percent) and visiting with friends and relatives (43 percent) were named the three top primary activities by travelers this Labor Day weekend.
AAA's monitor of prices for hotels, car rentals and air travel—the Leisure Travel Index—shows that airfares over the Labor Day weekend are expected to increase 9 percent from last year, with the lowest round-trip rates moving up to $179 for the top U.S. air routes.
Weekend daily car rental rates will increase 6 percent from a year ago, with travelers spending an average of $139 per night compared to $132 a year ago.
