By DAVE CARLSON
AAA IDAHO
AAA is projecting that the number of Americans traveling this Fourth of July holiday weekend will increase 17.1 percent from 2009.
The travel organization said it expects some 34.9 million travelers will take a trip at least 50 miles away from home this year during the holiday period between Thursday, July 1, though Monday, July 5, up about 5 million from a year ago.
"There's still volatility in the financial markets, but fortunately the U.S. economy is a healthier place today than it was a year ago," said AAA Idaho spokesman Dave Carlson. "These projections indicate there's renewed and growing interest to visit family, friends, and other vacation destinations."
Important indicators such as improvements in gross domestic product, household net worth and employment all support the substantial increase for travel this Fourth of July holiday period. In addition, AAA said increases in reservations for cruises and vacation packages and online hotel bookings via AAA.com support the prediction for busier holiday travel.
Still, part of this year's expected increase results from poor travel performance a year ago. Actual travel has been higher six times this decade for this particular holiday.
According to a report issued by IHS Global Insight—a consulting firm that teams with AAA to produce the travel projections—this year's substantially improved travel sentiment and sustained economic recovery are coming up against unusually weak travel performance from the July Fourth holiday period a year ago.
An expected modest recovery in travel a year ago did not occur, AAA said, because the effects of the recession were more significant and were peaking at that time.
Less understood, at least in its potential impact on travel this year, is the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. AAA said it is difficult to determine the number of cancellations for those who may have planned trips to beaches in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and West Florida. AAA predicts all regions of the country should see improvements in travel this year, though it concedes regions directly or indirectly impacted by the oil spill will likely experience less growth than the rest of the country.
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AAA said oil and gas prices have been creeping higher in the past week or two, though it does not expect any major changes in pump prices before the holiday period. Idaho's average pump price is $2.90, down about 18 cents from a month ago, but still well above the U.S. average price of $2.74.
Despite regionally higher pump prices, Fourth of July travel in Idaho and other mountain region states is expected to be 19 percent higher than a year ago.
Travel by the numbers
AAA said it expects that 31.4 million people, or 90 percent of all holiday travelers, will go by motor vehicle. That represents a 17.7 percent increase from the 26.8 million people who drove a year ago.
Air travel will account for 1.56 million travelers, an increase of 8.2 percent from one year ago when 1.44 million flew. Trips by other modes, including rail, bus and watercraft, will be the dominant means of travel used by 6 percent of all travelers.
According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index, airfares over the Fourth of July holiday weekend are expected to increase 13 percent from last year, with fares in the lowest average price category at $192 per ticket. However, it is important to note that fares for the prior year dropped 16 percent and, in spite of the increase in 2010, fares are still below the average from two years ago.
Weekend daily car rental rates will increase 4 percent to an average of $54. Hotel rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are also expected to increase 4 percent from a year ago, with travelers spending an average of $143 per night, compared to $137 last year. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond hotels will pay only 1 percent more at an average cost of $102 per night.
The average distance traveled by Americans this Fourth of July holiday weekend (617 miles) is forecast to be about the same as a year ago (614 miles). Median spending is estimated to be $644 this Fourth of July, nearly $50 less than last year when median spending was estimated at $693. Fifty-eight percent of Americans are expected to spend time with friends and relatives over the holiday.
The projections are based on forecasting that includes several key components: a travel forecast built with economic inputs, ongoing historical travel data and a survey that measures traveler behaviors and intentions. The complete holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.
AAA has predicted that the number of Americans traveling over the Fourth of July holiday will be up considerably from 2009, with most of the trips being taken by car.
Photo by Mountain Express
