AAA says it expects an overall 4.8 percent decline in travel in the Rocky Mountain region during the Christmas/New Year's holidays compared to a year ago. That translates to about a million fewer travelers originating in this region.
Travel in the region is contrary to national trends. AAA predicts that more Americans will travel during the holiday period this year, due to growing confidence about their financial situations. AAA projects 87.7 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the year-end holidays, a 3.8 percent increase from the 84.5 million who traveled during Christmas/New Year's a year ago. It's the largest projected increase for any major holiday this year.
"The asterisk to this year's projections is that Idaho and other states in the Mountain region are up against an especially strong performance a year ago, and these states have been less able to respond to the recession," said Dave Carlson, AAA Idaho director of public and government affairs. "The recession has been felt more acutely in this region because we fell further from our leader role in the housing and growth boom."
The econometric model used in calculating travel intentions notes that while the region is seeing improvements in the economy, it is still posting higher unemployment, a decline in gross state product and less real disposable income compared to the national averages.
"We still expect that 32.5 percent of the population in this region will travel, which is well above the national average of 28.4 percent," Carlson said.
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Eighty-eight percent, or 77.7 million of the 87.7 million Americans traveling during the holiday period will go by car. That's a 4.4 percent increase from a year ago. Despite that gas prices that are about a dollar higher than a year ago, AAA believes the impact they will have on year-end travel will be minimal.
The number of travelers by air is expected to be 4.2 million, compared to 4.1 million in 2008, an increase of 2.4 percent.
"The moderate projected rise in the number of air travelers this holiday period is especially welcome since the airline industry was hit especially hard by the recession," said AAA's director of Travel Services, Glen MacDonell.
