Avalanche forecaster Chris Lundy is starting his sixth winter at the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center and has learned to look for the "sugary" stuff, as he calls it. He often digs vertical-walled snow pits along mountainsides to expose the accumulated layers of snowfall.
Despite being all white, different snowfalls are easy to discern like the rock layers of a cliff, as is the snow layer that triggers avalanches.
"If you stick your hand in those layers, the snow would fall apart like sugar," Lundy said. "That's a problem."
Dry and crisp, it's the kind of snow that refuses to be made into a snowball. It won't stick to itself or any other snow, like tiny frozen ball bearings.
Center Director Janet Kellam has learned the area's tendencies after spending 14 years with the center, and said the Wood River area is especially prone to avalanches. It stays cold and dry most of the winter with extended time between snowfalls, perfect conditions for production of the dry, sugary snow the forecasters fear.
But, Kellam said, most of the forecasting isn't spent playing in the snow. The Sun Valley-based center has three forecasters, but only one's on duty every day. One person versus one million acres. The center's core area of forecasting takes in the Wood River Valley, while its outlying regions are the north Sawtooth Mountains, western Smoky Mountains and Soldier Mountains. That would be too much ground for one person to dig pits, especially during the short days of winter, every one of which begins with a new avalanche advisory posted on the center's Web site—sawtoothavalanche.com—by 7:30 a.m.
That's why Lundy begins his days on duty sitting in front of the center's computer. He stares at a long list of statistics streamed here by remote weather stations on Galena Summit, Bald Mountain and Soldier Mountain. Spreadsheets chronicling time between snowfalls, wetness of snow, air temperature increases and snow depth all come together in Lundy's head, congeal into an image from numbers of what the slopes of distant peaks look like, on the snow's surface and below it.
Below is the key.
Layer upon layer of snowfall, each relying on the one beneath for support, is like a cake but tipped at an angle. Put granulated sugar between those two layers of cake and the top will come sliding off.
In winter snow conditions, that's the most common cause of avalanches. The grainy sugar-like snow isn't, in itself, a problem until another layer of snow lands on top—the second layer of cake.
Lundy has been there, has heard the popping "crack" and seen a line shoot across the snow's surface. Then, a "whoof" sounds as the entire top slab slides off the granulated snow beneath it, turning from frozen fluff into a white wave.
"Everyone's had a close call," Lundy said of the forecasters. "You might be on a ridge and trigger the avalanche below you."
That's why forecasters stick to travelling by ridges when the odds are stacked against them.
Once Lundy looks at the computer's tabulations and decides where to expect these troublesome conditions, he skis or snowmobiles out to key spots for visual confirmation. He then comes back to the center, reports his findings and returns the next day at 4 in the morning to see if the weather stations reported any notable changes that could influence his advisory, to be posted in three hours.
This is the winter routine, day in and day out for the center. And an important one at that, Kellam said. She said the area sees an abundance of avalanche activity but not a correlating number of accidents or deaths simply because of such a small population.
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Still, two people died here last year due to avalanches.
"That's a lot for us," Kellam said.
One was a snowmobiler in the Norton Creek drainage, 20 miles northwest of Ketchum, and the other was a skier on Gladiator Peak near Galena summit, about 25 miles northwest of Ketchum.
The state has two other avalanche centers—Payette and Panhandle—but Sawtooth reports almost the same number of accidents and fatalities as the other two combined, according to avalanche.org, to which all of America's 19 avalanche centers report.
Since the winter of 1998-99, Sawtooth reported 17 accidents compared to the other centers' 22, and 12 deaths to the other centers' 14.
The statistics only go back that far, shortly after the Sawtooth center was created in 1994. Kellam said the Sawtooth avalanche center is about the same age as most of the U.S. Forest Service's avalanche centers, which were originally part of ski resorts. Leading up to the 1990s, the Forest Service provided snow rangers for ski resorts since most are on national forests.
Kellam said the Sawtooth National Forest has been disseminating avalanche information since the 1970s but for years did not have a formal avalanche center. But, Kellam said, resorts took over their own avalanche responsibilities and the Forest Service stepped away to create separate avalanche centers, which were direly needed.
She said the 1980s and 1990s saw an explosion of backcountry recreation in America and a matching increase of people exposed to avalanches. With that came the need for avalanche centers.
Kellam said it's been difficult for the Forest Service to track rates of backcountry use, but she's sure it's increased "exponentially" in the last half century. That's reflected in fatality rates.
According to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center and its database dating back to 1900, America's first out-of-bounds/backcountry fatality due to an avalanche was recorded in 1940. Up to that point, only two people were reported as dying while skiing in-bounds due to avalanches. Out-of-bounds and in-bounds deaths from avalanches, among recreationists of all types, remained at an even pace up to about 1973. Up to that point, 19 people had died in-bounds and 21 out-of-bounds. Ten years later, out-of-bounds deaths were at a cumulative 75, three times the number of in-bounds deaths at 25. The gap only continued to widen up to last year. From 1900 to 2008, the total was 242 out-of-bounds fatalities to 36 in-bound fatalities, with half the out-of-bounds deaths coming in the past 18 years.
Lundy and Kellam said that doesn't mean people should entirely avoid recreating in the backcountry. Lundy advised following the center's advisories, but said the best tool is common sense.
"Bottom line is, Mother Nature gives us billboard clues, red flags," he said.
These are recent avalanches, signs of unstable snow like cracking or hollow, drum-like sounds on hard snow, heavy snow or rainfall in the past 24 hours, windblown snow and significant warming.
But, just like on the highway, people ignore the billboards for want of reaching their destination—in this case, fresh powder.
"It's not that you don't go at all," Kellam said. "Just stick to a more gradual slope."
To see current avalanche advisories, go to sawtoothavalanche.com or call 622-8027.
Trevon Milliard: tmilliard@mtexpress.com
Avalanche classes
The Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center holds three pairs of avalanche classes this winter with the first being in-class avalanche basics and the second being a field session. Donations are encouraged.
1.) Avalanche Basics on Dec. 1 from 6-8:30 p.m. at Hemingway Elementary School's front lobby.
2.) Optional field session on Dec. 5 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. starting at Hemingway Elementary School's front lobby.
1.) Avalanche Basics on Jan. 5 from 6-8:30 p.m. at Hailey Community Campus, Room 301.
2.) Optional field session on Jan. 9 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. starting at Hailey Community Campus, Room 301.
1.) Avalanche Basics for snowmobilers on Jan. 14 from 6-8:30 p.m. at Woodside Motorsports.
2.) Optional snowmobiler field session on Jan. 16 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. starting at Woodside Motorsports.
A skier cutting into the slope of Butterfield Mountain triggered this avalanche on Feb. 24, 2009, that spewed into Buccal Creek. The avalanche was 200 feet wide and 10-12 inches deep. Photo courtesy of Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
