Old Man Winter appears to have overslept.
Except for the manmade snow on ski runs at Bald Mountain, the story so far this season has been one of blue-sky days and very little precipitation. The little snowfall that has fallen on the mountains of south-central Idaho has retreated, leaving only small traces of white on shaded north-facing aspects and under the tree canopy on heavily timbered slopes.
Even on the highest peaks in local ranges—the Smoky, Boulder and Pioneer mountains—what was all white just a few weeks ago has mostly evaporated.
Fortunately, winter hasn't officially arrived—that happens on the winter solstice, on December 21—meaning a lot can still happen as long as wintry weather systems begin paying attention to the northern Rockies. Just a few large winter storms could counter the effects of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation that's lasted through most of the fall, said Dan Valle, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service's Pocatello office.
"There's a lot of time left in the winter," Valle said. "We could still have a very busy January and February."
For now, the region is left with these kinds of stats: In the Big Wood River basin, the current snowpack, such as it is, was at a piddling 34 percent of normal on Thursday, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The federal agency measures snowpack in the Big Wood basin at nine Snotel sites stretching from Galena Summit to the Soldier Ranger Station near Fairfield in the Camas Creek drainage.
Short for snowpack telemetry, Snotel sites transmit weather data remotely from isolated mountain sites to Idaho's NRCS headquarters in Boise. There are 83 Snotel sites dotting the state's high country.
Just on the other side of Galena Summit in the Salmon River basin—a massive system of rivers covering most of central Idaho—the snowpack was still a disappointing 52 percent of normal on Thursday.
The job of local weather forecasters has been made all the more difficult this fall because of the existence of a climatic phenomenon they refer to as "El Neither," more correctly known as the neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO neutral for short. Predicting long-term weather trends in the northern Rockies during ENSO neutral is just about impossible, Valle said.
"It could go either way," he said.
Much easier to predict are longterm weather trends when strong El Niño or La Niña conditions dominate the Pacific Ocean. A warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Niño, but during La Niña, the easterly trade winds strengthen and cold upwelling along the equator and the west coast of South America intensifies. La Niña conditions generally bring snowy winters to the northern Rockies.
The current dry spell is due to a high-pressure system that's been hanging over the California coastline for about three weeks, Valle said.
"That's been deflecting all the major storm systems well north of here," he said.
He said while there's no evidence to suggest that any large storms will arrive in the next seven to 10 days, "there will be some weak systems."
The almost complete lack of snow on local mountainsides—as evidenced on Wednesday here in the Boulder Mountain foothills north of Eagle Creek—has been bad news for local snow enthusiasts so far this fall. And the next seven to 10 days don’t look much better, either.
Photo by David N. Seelig
