For Mike Ferguson, Idaho's chief economist, these are anxious times.
"I like excitement when I'm out windsurfing, kayaking or mountain biking, but I don't like this," he said. "This is not fun, yet it's the reality we're confronted with."
The economic ripple coursing from housing markets to Wall Street and back to the country's small businesses is undeniable. The questions are how far will it go and how severe will it become? Ferguson acknowledged that Blaine County, by virtue of its wealth, is somewhat insulated from the national economy, but it is not immune.
"The pace of these developments is pretty rapid, and it obviously is a cause for concern no matter where you're at globally," Ferguson said. "There are potentially very large ramifications."
David Wilson is owner of Ketchum-based Wilson Construction and past president of the National Association of Homebuilders.
"I think here in the valley we've seen a big slowdown in construction in the past year," Wilson said. "It seems like we're always six months to a year behind whatever happens nationally."
It is evidenced locally by Hailey's partly built Sweetwater Community, at which construction was suspended indefinitely this week because of the poor market. The $200 million development was slated for 20 acres of land in Woodside. Tennessee developer J. Kevin Adams has spent $48 million on the project thus far.
The million-dollar question for Wilson is: How far will the Sweetwater trend go?
"What's going to be the long-term effect on discretionary spending on second homes?" Wilson asked. "And this winter, I guess we'll find out about what's the discretionary spending in terms of vacations. We don't know."
Rob Santa, owner of Sturtevants Mountain Outfitters with stores in Ketchum and Hailey, said the national economic picture certainly has his attention.
"I've always said we're insulated but not immune from national trends," he said. "This could be a test case."
Santa said that, despite a relatively good summer tourism season, local retailers are going to feel the effect of the national economic quagmire. He also said Congress' consideration this week of a $700 billion economic bailout package could be pivotal.
Both Wilson and Santa said the winter season will help answer questions.
"The factor of snow is always a big one here, but this year it could be magnified or compounded," Santa said. "There's less money in circulation locally, just because of the flattening of the real estate market."
But Santa has worked in the outdoor sporting goods industry through previous recessions, and noticed that people "get back to basics, and outdoor recreation is one of them."
"From that perspective, the outdoor recreation industry could be, if not bullish, more optimistic than some other industries," he said.
Santa is instituting some changes. Santa said he has considered trimming some orders and weathering the associated financial penalties. And the store put in smaller orders for goods it will try to resell in another six months.
"We probably cut [those orders] by a factor of 10 percent, 15 percent," he said.
And the fact is that while Sun Valley is not as competitive as it might be among Western ski destinations, it has a considerable number of second homeowners. Santa said they will probably continue to spend time and money in the Sun Valley area.
Most probably won't, however, be building new houses.
"The national homebuilders were saying it's 2009 or 2010 before they see us coming out of this housing slump," Wilson said. "There's still that high national demand, but there's this liquidity issue, too. Nobody's able to borrow money."
In addition to his other positions, Wilson serves on the board of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle, where loans are certainly more difficult to come by.
"Our member banks throughout the West are being very conservative in terms of their lending practices, so they don't get into this same sub-prime business," Wilson said.
Wilson said the national homebuilders saw some of the writing on the wall as early as 2005, but added, "I don't think anybody thought it would be this bad.
"We just have a huge oversupply (of houses) and no consumer confidence," he said.
Ferguson said Idaho's banking sector appears to be in better condition than that of the nation's banks as a whole, and mortgage foreclosures are at about half the national rate. The problem now is that the credit crunch is reeling extraneous spending and speculation back in.
"If you want to get a mortgage you'd better have really solid financials," he said. "One way to characterize it is that things are tightening up. Another way to characterize it is that the banking sector is coming back to reality."
Penny-pinching tips abound. For the average car owner, AAA Idaho suggested this week that drivers should inflate their tires. With only a 10 percent reduction in air pressure, drivers will get 60 fewer miles on a 15-gallon tank of gas.
