Friday, September 12, 2008

Judging the surge


Tony Mabbatt is a retired Senior Foreign Service Officer who moderates the Foreign Policy Association's "Great Decision" foreign policy discussion program, sponsored by College of Southern Idaho.

By TONY MABBATT

Did the surge in Iraq succeed? That is a key question being asked of the presidential candidates. Sen. McCain says yes. Sen. Obama's response is more nuanced. I suggest that the question can only be answered adequately if it is considered on two levels—tactical and strategic.

By the tactical level, I mean how the battle is fought. It involves the choice of tactics and resources used on the battlefield.

Strategy refers to why the battle is fought in the first place. Strategy describes the mission the battle is seeking to accomplish.

On the tactical level it seems clear that the surge succeeded. Violence to Iraqi civilians and the level of American casualties were reduced dramatically. As a result, it has been possible to turn over to Iraqi forces the security responsibility for significant areas of the country. The additional 30,000 American troops, the counterinsurgency tactics brilliantly employed by Gen. Petraeus, the assistance provided by Sunni groups fed up with the violence perpetrated by al Qaida elements, and the stand-down by the Mahdi Army are all credited for these favorable results.

The result of the surge on the strategic level is far less clear. The mission that the surge was designed to accomplish was to provide a period of relative quiet in which the Iraqi government would be able to get its political act together. While the government has made some progress, many critical issues remain unresolved, such as sharing political power with Sunni leadership, integrating former Baathist Party members and former civil servants into the government and economy, and establishing a method of sharing oil profits that is satisfactory to the Sunnis.

Furthermore, the surge must be evaluated in the context of the Iraq war as a whole, in particular in terms of the cost of the war compared to the benefits. And this war has been costly indeed. It is the second longest in U. S. history, and the second most costly—surpassed only by World War II. These costs, according to the Washington Post, are running at $12 billion a month. Total cost, including care for veterans and replenishment of depleted military equipment, will exceed $1.5 trillion, according to the Post. Then there are the 4,155 U. S. military killed and 30,568 wounded, not to mention the estimated 90,000 Iraqi deaths and 5 million Iraqis displaced from their homes.

As to our strategic position, the war has been a recruiting tool for terrorists, made Iran the superpower in the region, diverted our attention from Afghanistan where the Taliban are now resurgent, weakened our alliances and eroded our prestige and influence.

What were the benefits to compare with these horrendous costs? We invaded to eliminate weapons of mass destruction—but there were none. We invaded to avenge 9/11—but Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. We invaded to prevent Iraq from assisting al Qaida—but there were no al Qaida terrorists in Iraq before we invaded. We invaded to eliminate Saddam Hussein—but we already had him boxed in with weapons inspectors on the ground and our air force flying over two-thirds of the country on a daily basis. We invaded to establish a pro-American, Western-style democracy in the Middle East—but Iraq's religious, ethnic and tribal divisions and traditions have proven to be barren ground.

We waged war on the basis of false premises, for dubious goals, with failed strategies and at unacceptable cost. The surge may have succeeded on a tactical level, but on every other level the war, by any rational measure, is not worth the cost.




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