Friday, October 5, 2007

Putin?s gambit fulfills prophecy of critics


By DOUGLAS BIRCH

MOSCOW—If Vladimir Putin becomes Russia's prime minister, it would allow him to keep his promise of stepping down as president without relinquishing power.

The mere suggestion has assuaged markets, which fear instability, reassured diplomats, who crave continuity, and quieted the fears of his subordinates—many of them veterans of the KGB or other security services—for whom continued control of the state is an imperative.

But his gambit may also fulfill the fears of critics, who for years have warned that the Russian president's long-range goal was to dismantle Russia's vestigial democracy and end its uncertain experiment in political pluralism.

The U.S. State Department put on a poker face in response to Putin's announcement he was not retiring from politics—at least not yet.

Analysts friendly to the Kremlin hailed the decision as the answer to Russia's prayers. Many liberal political analysts meanwhile have long warned that the stability Putin has achieved will be short-lived, because an authoritarian state quickly grows deaf to the voices of discontent, blind to the signs of dissent.

If Putin assumes the prime minister's post, it is almost certain that he will wind up controlling the levers of power.

More than two-thirds of Russians said they wanted the constitution changed to permit Putin a third consecutive term, but he refrained from such a move, which would have consigned him to the company of the world's strongmen and presidents for life.

It seems doubtful, though, that Putin would permit others to run Russia.

Despite Putin's sometimes-harsh criticism of the West, U.S. and European leaders have responded with restraint and reticence. Partly, there is the perception that criticism only provokes more hostility from the Kremlin.

If Putin remains Russia's leader after December, he will hold an unprecedented degree of power in the post-Soviet period.

The dominant United Russia party, the party most closely associated with Putin, was expected to gain at least half of the vote.

Putin's popularity ratings have soared as high as 80 percent, and his appearance on the slate of United Russia is likely to give the party a lock on the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament.

What he will do with that power is another matter.

The nation only recently approached the gross domestic product it enjoyed just prior to the Soviet collapse in 1991. It still faces the Herculean task of rebuilding its industries, revitalizing its rural areas, improving education and health and reversing its demographic decline.

Over the past year, the Kremlin has focused on reviving Soviet symbols: by planting a Russian flag at the north pole, restoring patrols by strategic aircraft and through belligerent rhetoric in international forums—all applauded by Russians, who felt humiliated in the wake of the Soviet collapse.

But in the next decade Russia faces the challenges of globalization without having the advantages of strong property rights, the rule of law or, it seems, a robust democracy. The world will be watching what Vladimir Putin does next.

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Douglas Birch is Moscow bureau chief for The Associated Press.




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