"The job of the newspaper," Finley Peter Dunne's "Mr. Dooley" once announced in his signature Irish brogue, "is to comfort th' afflicted and afflict th' comfortable." And so, bejabbers, I take up that solemn callin' today, humblin' the high and mighty and liftin' up the low and downtrodden. It's time to comfort the Republicans—they're people too, you know—and afflict the Democrats.
The topic at hand concerns the upcoming congressional elections. You know, the ones that Democrats have already sewn up. The ones that will make Nancy Pelosi speaker of the House and Harry Reid Senate majority leader. Last week I started offering lunch bets with liberal pals whose lunches I wouldn't mind paying for anyway. My wager: After all the sound bites and commentary, campaign ads and get-out-the-vote drives, Republicans will retain control of Congress.
I know, Republicans who've been lining up their assisted-suicide prescriptions and Democrats who've been in a state of rapture may think I'm off my right-wing rocker, and that's possible. But I'm not offering straight-up bets here. If Democrats reclaim Congress, I spring for lunch at my favorite burrito stand. If Republicans hold on and I win, lunch at the Portland Steak & Chophouse is on them.
The odds are built into the winnings, and it's only fair I get long odds. After all, George Bush's poll numbers are dismal, the Iraq war is unpopular, a Democratic wave's a-coming, Republicans face Katrina-force headwinds and social conservatives are staying home because of Mark Foley's dirty messages to a male page. Don't my Democratic chums believe the conventional wisdom? Haven't the mainstream media declared Republicans kaput? Why not take the bet? You'll never have to pay up!
What could possess anyone to think the GOP might retain Congress? An inability to face the inevitable? Is desire to be the parent of the prediction? Not really. True, a Democratic Congress would be bad news for the successful execution of the war on terror, and a Democratic Senate would be bad news for the confirmation of appellate court judges over the next two years. But that's about it. In some ways it would help Republicans. It would put the Democratic leaders on gaudy display and in positions of accountability. It would also release a bit of the poison that builds up over an eight-year presidency. Not a bad thing for the GOP as it heads into the 2008 presidential elections.
No, what's made me a big-time burrito bettor are some factors that argue against a Democratic wave.
You know all the media polls that show low Bush ratings and Democrats trouncing Republicans in the generic race for Congress? Often they're polls of adults rather than registered voters, or registered voters rather than likely voters, and this makes a difference. Also, the samples often don't reflect the electorate that's actually shown up to vote in the past few elections. For example, they often undersample Republicans or religious voters. They make for better headlines than pre-election intel.
Besides, Bush isn't running for Congress, and voters don't choose between a Democratic and Republican Congress. They choose between individual candidates who ultimately go out and campaign for themselves. And, although there's a lot of bouncing around in polls of those individual races, Republican prospects in contested races aren't nearly as dismal as the Democratic wave theory suggests. Indeed, they've brightened considerably of late. Finally, voters still matter in elections, and the GOP's get-out-the-vote effort and candidates have had a better record than many pollsters over the past elections. For example, one final 2002 poll had Democrat Walter Mondale beating Republican Norm Coleman by six points in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race. Coleman won by three. And, if the 2004 exit polls and press predictions had been accurate, John Kerry would be president today.
Yes, it's going to be a rough year for the GOP—sixth years historically are for parties that control the White House—and I could be wrong about Republicans retaining Congress. But do my Democratic friends have the courage of their predictions?
What'll it be, boys? Burritos or filet mignon?
