Debate Two scorecard: same Kerry, better Bush
By DAVID REINHARD
What debate were you watching?
That's what many readers asked after I called the first presidential debate between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry a draw. It was apparently the same debate Kerry spokesman Joe Lockhart saw because he, too, deemed it a draw, but many readers--mainly but not exclusively Kerry supporters--disagreed.
My point then was you can't judge these things like high school debates. They're media moments in the context of the campaign. Kerry had to do well, and Bush only had to avoid some gaffe. Kerry did well, and Bush did OK--and, so, a draw.
Maybe I failed to appreciate the impact of Bush's smirks and uncrisp overall performance against Kerry's silky night's work. But I didn't think the first debate would achieve for Kerry the only thing that matters: moving poll numbers.
Well, that now appears to have happened. You can quarrel about some of the polls' sampling and timing, but it's hard to argue the race has not tightened. As the straight-shooters at RealClearPolitics.com noted Friday, "There is no question that the situation for Senator Kerry has improved dramatically in the last week."
So will Friday night's second debate move numbers further? How did each candidate do answering the questions of an audience of voters who said they were undecided? (I know--who are those people?)
Kerry was every inch the debater he was in the first debate--and for years in Congress. He was polished and down-to-business, a numbers-machine and a top-flight counter puncher. He's a very good debater--sometimes maybe even too good and polished; his mechanized strength as a debater can come at the cost of a connection to the audience. Overall, there was scant difference between Kerry's first debate and Friday's.
The same can't be said about Bush. He was markedly better in St. Louis than in Florida. He raised his debate game to Kerry's level and then some. He tied things together in a way he hadn't in Florida.
He lashed Kerry to his record in the Senate, pointing out what he had done--his liberal voting record on taxes and spending, votes against intelligence funding--and what he hadn't done--tort reform and Medicare reform. He went after Kerry for his inconsistencies on key issues. He followed up smartly on Kerry's "global-test" statement in Florida.
Unlike the first debate, Kerry was on the defensive Friday evening. Note how Kerry started his closing statement by telling people what he wouldn't do.
Most importantly, Bush made a crisp case for Iraq based on the latest findings in the Duelfer report. Again and again, he eviscerated Kerry's "plan" for Iraq, ("My opponent says he has a plan; it sounds familiar, because it's called the Bush plan.") Bush noted the folly of asking other nations to support "the wrong war, in the wrong place at the wrong time."
The president was far more comfortable and commanding Friday night. He was physically at ease. The grimace was gone and Bush's crowd-pleasing sense of humor was back on display. After Kerry answered but failed to answer a woman's question on public funding of abortion, Bush responded, "I'm trying to decipher that."
After Kerry said something about Bush?s owning a timber company, the president said, "I own a timber company? That's news to me. Need some wood?" The crowd seemed to love it.
And he managed to keep his smirk in check. In fact, the only notable facial feature of the evening--I guess we're supposed to take notice of these things--was a self-satisfied mug shot of Kerry somewhere around the military draft question.
Suffice it to say, that disappeared by the end of the night. Of course, these town-hall meeting presidential debates are all about how you connect with the studio audience. Are you warm and cuddly, comfortable yet commanding? Do you feel their pain?
So who won Friday's showdown in the Show Me state? Who's more likely to move poll numbers? Bush, going away.
That's, at least, what I saw Friday night, untarnished by post-debate partisan spin or media commentary.
What debate were you watching?
David Reinhard is the Associate Editor of The Oregonian in Portland, Oregon.
